Tsunamis Affecting the Coast of Southeastern China
W T Wong and Y W Chan Hong Kong Observatory Abstract Tsunami is a high impact low probability maritime hazard that poses a threat to the coastal communities worldwide. The coast of southeastern China may be affected by tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the northern part of the South China Sea and the Taiwan region. In this study, the tsunami generation probability for different earthquake magnitudes are computed from catalogues of global tsunamis and earthquakes for 1981-2005. The likelihood of tsunamis generated by earthquakes near the coast of southeastern China, and in the Taiwan and Luzon regions to affect the coast of southeastern China will be estimated taking into account seismicity, focal mechanisms, and records of probable tsunamigenic earthquakes in these areas. The results show that the chance of tsunamis to be generated by earthquakes near the Pearl River Estuary is extremely small. Quanzhou to Nan’ao and northern Hainan may be affected by local tsunamis with a return period of about 210 years. Seismicity in Taiwan and Luzon regions is rather high where regional tsunamis may be generated to affect the coast of southeastern China with a return period of 110 and 120 years respectively.
No comments